Eurovision Betting Odds: Last Look Ahead of the Semi-Final Two

Ahead of Semi-Final Two tonight, we take a look at the betting markets to see who is expected to qualify, who has lost momentum and whether there is another potential winner in the mix.

Semi-Final Two

Bulgaria has surged forwards, gaining 10 percentage points in its chance to secure a spot in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Albania and Czechia have also seen a positive reaction since the Jury show last night, with Albania gaining 6 percentage points and Czechia 5 percentage points.

In contrast, Cyprus has dropped 10 percentage points, but is still 24 percentage points ahead of eleventh placed Latvia. Armenia has also struggled in the past day falling a further 6 percentage points back and looking unlikely according to the betting markets to make it through to Saturday night.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 13):

1. Denmark – Søren Torpegaard Lund – “Før vi går hjem” – 96% (+1%)
2. Australia  – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 96% (+1 place)
3. Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 95% (+1%)
4. Ukraine – Leléka – “Ridnym” – 94% (+1%)
5. Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 91%(+10%)
6. Albania – Alis – “Nân” – 83% (+1 place, +6%)
7. Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 82% (+2 places, +5%)
8. Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 78% (-2 places, -2%)
9. Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 67% (-1 place, -10%)
10. Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 62% (no change)
11. Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 43% (-3%)
12. Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 43% (no change)
13. Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 33% (-6%)
14. Luxembourg  – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 30% (-4%)
15. Azerbaijan  – Jiva – “Just Go” – 9% (-1%)

Odds of Victory

Australia has climbed to fourth favourite to take victory following a strong performance in the jury show for Semi-Final Two. Delta Goodrem has gained 3 percentage points in the past 24 hours, and is now viewed as among the favourites to take victory on Saturday night. The other big mover in the past day is DARA from Bulgaria, who has climbed 7 places and now sits as the ninth favourite for victory.

In contrast, France and Denmark have lost more than 1 percentage point chance of victory, with France back to sixth favourite. Sweden is also sat at its lowest position in the odds of victory in a number of years sitting at 13th favourite for victory.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 13):

1. Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 37.2% (+0.6%)
2. Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 12.4% (-1.1%)
3. Denmark – Søren Torpegaard Lund – “Før vi går hjem” – 9.9% (-1.5%)
4. Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 8.6% (+2 places, +3%)
5. Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 6.6% (+0.4%)
6. France – Monroe – “Regarde !” – 4.9% (-2 places, -1.4%)
7. Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 3.1% (-0.6%)
8. Italy – Sal Da Vinci – “Per sempre si” – 2.5% (-0.1%)
9. Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 2.1% (+7 places, +1.4%)
10. Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 1.7% (-1 place, -0.1%)
11. Ukraine – Leléka – “Ridnym” – 1.5% (-1 place, -0.1%)
12. Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 1.2% (+1 place)
13. Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 1.2% (-2 places, -0.1%)
14. Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 1.1% (-2 places, -0.3%)
15. Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 1.1% (+0.4%)
16. Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 0.8% (-2 places)
17. Albania – Alis – “Nân” – 0.6% (no change)
18. Luxembourg – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 0.4% (no change)
19. Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 0.4% (no change)
20. United Kingdom – Look Mum No Computer – “Eins, zwei, drei” – 0.4% (no change)
21. Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 0.4% (-0.1%)
22. Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 0.3% (no change)
23. Poland – Alicja – “Pray” – 0.3% (no change)
24. Germany – Sarah Engels – “Fire” – 0.3% (no change)
25. Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 0.2% (no change)
26. Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 0.2% (no change)
27. Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 0.2% (no change)
28. Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” –  0.2% (no change)
29. Austria – Cosmó – “Tanzschien” –  0.2% (no change)
30. Azerbaijan – Jiva – “Just Go” –  0.2% (no change)

Source: Eurovision World