Eurovision Betting Odds: 🇵🇱 Poland Climbs Towards Qualification, 🇫🇮 Finland’s Status as Favourite Grows

With first rehearsals for Semi-Final Two complete and the videos for Semi-Final One performances released, we are taking a look at how the betting markets have reacted to the performances.

Semi-Final One

With the release of thirty second snippets of all of the performances in Semi-Final One, Poland has now jumped into the final qualification, climbing seven percentage points in the past three days. Semi-Final One remains a highly competitive show for the last spot in the Semi-Final, with four countries between 9th and 13th covered by 10 percentage points. In contrast, Georgia has fallen out of contention, now sitting nine percentage points away from qualification, the biggest drop of any country in either Semi-Final.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 4):

1. Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 96% (no change)
2. Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 96% (+1%)
3. Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 95% (no change)
4. Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 95% (no change)
5. Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 89% (+1%)
6. Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 86% (+3%)
7. Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 77% (-4%)
8. Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 68% (-3%)
9. Montenegro – Tamara Živković – “Noza Zora” – 57% (-3%)
10. Poland – Alicja – “Prayer” – 50% (+3 places, +7%)
11. Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic to Be True” – 47% (-1 place)
12. Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – “Rosa” – 47% (+1%)
13. Georgia – Bzikebi – “On Replay” – 41% (-2 places, -6%)
14. Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” – 37% (no change)
15. San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – “Superstar” – 20% (+2%)

Semi-Final Two

Semi-Final Two remains the more stable of the two qualification shows with the betting markets. Albania has drawn slightly further away from the chasing pack, now 21 percentage points ahead of eleventh place. Switzerland is now at its highest positing in the qualification markets, in contrast to Armenia who have fallen back to 13th favourite to secure a place in the final.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 1):

1. Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 94% (+1%)
2. Denmark – Søren Torpegaard Lund – “Før vi går hjem” – 94% (+1%)
3. Ukraine – Leléka – “Ridnym” – 92% (no change)
4. Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 88% (+2%)
5. Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 81% (+1%)
6. Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 78% (-1 place, -1%)
7. Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 79% (+1 place, +2%)
8. Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 73% (no change)
9. Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 70% (-2%)
10. Albania – Alis – “Nân” – 68% (+2%)
11. Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 46% (+2 places, +1%)
12. Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 45% (-3%)
13. Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 43% (-2 places, -5%)
14. Luxembourg – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 36% (-1%)
15. Azerbaijan – Jiva – “Just Go” – 11% (+1%)

Odds of Victory

Finland has drawn even further ahead of the chasing pack having gained 5 percentage points since the start of this week. Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen has gained 2 percentage points in the past 24 hours following the confirmation that Linda will be allowed to perform the violin live. In contrast, Greece, Australia and France have all dropped percentage likelihood of victory. Sweden is the biggest fall in the top ten, losing three places as momentum builds behind Malta and Romania.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 4):

1. Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 34.3% (+5.0%)
2. Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 12.8 % (-3.5%)
3. Denmark – Søren Torpegaard Lund – “Før vi går hjem” – 11.3% (+1.0%)
4. France – Monroe – “Regarde !” – 7.3% (+1 place, -0.5%)
5. Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 7.0% (-1 place, -1.6%)
6. Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 4.1% (-0.6%)
7. Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 3.1% (+1 place, +0.5%)
8. Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 3.0% (+3 places, +1.3%)
9. Italy – Sal Da Vinci – “Per sempre si” – 2.7% (+0.2%)
10. Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 2.5% (-3 places, -0.2%)
11. Ukraine – Leléka – “Ridnym” – 1.6% (-1 place, -0.3%)
12. Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 1.1% (-0.3%)
13. Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 1.0% (+3 places, +0.2%)
14. Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 0.9% (-1 place, -0.1%)
15. Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 0.8% (-1 place, -0.3%)
16. Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 1.0% (-1 place, -0.2%)
17. Luxembourg – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 0.6% (no change)
18. Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 0.5% (-0.1%)
19. United Kingdom – Look Mum No Computer – “Eins, zwei, drei” – 0.5% (-0.1%)
20. Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 0.5% (no change)
21. Albania – Alis – “Nân” – 0.4% (+1 place)
22. Germany – Sarah Engels – “Fire” – 0.4% (-1 place)
23. Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 0.3% (+1 place)
24. Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 0.4% (-1 place, -0.1%)
25. Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 0.3% (no change)
26. Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 0.3% (no change)
27. Poland – Alicja – “Prayer” – 0.2% (no change)
28. Austria – Cosmó – “Tanzschien” – 0.2% (+2 places)
29. Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” – 0.2% (-1 place)
30. Georgia – Bzikebi – “On Replay” – 0.2% (-1 place)
31. Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – “Rosa” – 0.2% (no change)
32. San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – “Superstar” – 0.2% (+1 place)
33. Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic to Be True” – 0.2% (-1 place)
34. Montenegro – Tamara Živković – “Noza Zora” – 0.2% (no change)
35. Azerbaijan – Jiva – “Just Go” – 0.2% (no change)

Source: Eurovision World