At the start of this month we revealed the full results of our annual event Eurojury. Using the results we received in the jury vote and the online vote we have restructured the data to see what we can expect in Vienna tonight at the grand final.
We have firstly removed all the entries that sadly didn’t managed to qualify for the final during the two semi finals. To complete each set of votes, we have also dived deeper beyond the top 10 of each set to make sure each vote is complete. Some countries with smaller numbers of jury members have had to have some aggregated scores at the bottom end of their votes to make it complete. This was done by using data of predetermined countries from their pot at the allocation draw this year.
The Jury Vote
Denmark are forecast to take the lead after the jury vote tonight according to Eurojury. Though the total is quite low compared to final jury scores in previous years at the contest in addition to the news now that Denmark is set to open the show. Finland closely follow 25 points behind, then Australia just six points further. On the other end, hosts Austria are predicted to finish last with the juries, with United Kingdom only one point ahead.
In our restructured data, Denmark, Finland and Australia have all collect six sets of 12 points each. With Denmark’s coming from Sweden, Israel, Norway, Ukraine, Armenia and Latvia.
All but three sets of 12 points are accounted for in the countries that reached top half of the jury board. The only disagreements are Estonia awarding 12 points to Norway as well as Moldova collecting 12 points from both Romania and Austria.
The Online Vote
Finland and Denmark retain the top 2 positions as well in the online vote, though in opposite order. Finland here also have a margin over Denmark of more than 100 points, Australia retains third place. Germany however are expected to come last in the online vote according to Eurojury, followed closely by Norway as well as United Kingdom.
Of the 36 sets of 12 points on offer in our Online Vote, Finland collect an impressive 17 of them, almost half. Denmark take three other sets, while Australia actually take six despite being behind Denmark.
All sets of 12 points on offer in our online vote are all accounted for by countries that reached the top half of the board.
Combined Result
Eurojury forecast that Finland’s votes from the public are enough to overtake Denmark and secure victory overall. They land in first place almost 80 points ahead of Denmark, while once more Australia is expected to reach third place overall. When combining both sets of votes, sadly United Kingdom are the ones forecast to finish in last place with 21 points. Host Austria are just one space above, followed by Lithuania.
Rest of the World Jury
In this year’s edition of Eurojury we had a jury consisting of 12 members from the “Rest of the World” meaning from countries that are not competing in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. In this data above we have not included their votes to be as accurate as possible to the voting system used tonight which will only see the Rest of the World having a say through the televote alone.
However we have collected their data to display separately and they also forecast a win tonight for Finland, with France actually taking second place followed by Australia. Runners-up elsewhere, Denmark actually are sixth favourite with the Rest of the World. Norway and Poland in particular fare much better in this separate data
Comparing with the Betting Odds
Of course since we ran Eurojury, further factors and influences have come into play as rehearsals have now taken place. With that in mind admittedly the betting odds could be a more up to date forecast so we have compared the two.
As of this morning and which has been the case all season, Finland are still forecast to be tonight’s winners which would be exactly twenty years since their first win back in 2006. Australia however since the semi finals have climbed to second place a position they haven’t reached since 2016. Other high places of note are Greece in third, Israel climbing to fourth while Denmark, our jury winners drop to 7th. Since Eurojury as well Romania and Bulgaria have both risen to being in contention tonight.
The betting odds are currently forecasting the host country, Austria to take last place, while Germany, Belgium, Lithuania and United Kingdom complete their bottom 5.
The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest will take place tonight at 21:00 CET live from the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria. The winner will be determined by 50% jury and 50% televote.
