📊 ‘The Model’: KAJ and Sweden Back in Front in the Eurovision Race

‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, is again forecasting Sweden to win Eurovision 2025.

After its last update, in which The Model predicted France was the most likely country to take the crown, a new update released on April 15 says that KAJ and “Bara Bada Bastu” are back in the lead for the contest in Basel. The Model initially projected Sweden to win a month ago, changing to France in its second update.

Sweden is projected by The Model to finish in first place with 447 points overall – 183 from the jury and 264 from the televote – putting them 12 points ahead of France in second. Sweden is only six points up from the last projection, but France has fallen by 38 points, dominated by a decline in their expected jury vote.

Of course, if KAJ were to win Eurovision 2025, it would mark Sweden’s record-breaking eighth victory, eclipsing Ireland. KAJ would also win the contest despite being the first Swedish-language Eurovision entry sent by the country since before the turn of the millenium.

KAJ have been projected as the favourite to win the contest by The Model, a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try to predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.

Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi-finals and final of the contest. This prediction is not a forecast, as such, but a ‘nowcast’ – a calculation of what would happen if Eurovision 2025 was held right now.

As a result, The Model’s projections will change over time as the data it consumes changes. Different songs will shift up and down the order depending on their popularity, and The Model will also account for future announcements like song revamps and even tactical voting.

Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:

The Model Around The World

Before we get into The Model’s latest update, it’s been incredible to see the impact it’s been having internationally in recent weeks. After it was featured in a segment on Greek television, The Model has appeared in newspapers, YouTube videos and TikToks as people consider whether it could be right – or whether they disagree with it completely.

Most notably for me (James, the person who built it) being based in the UK, The Model was picked up for an article by Metro, one of the biggest newspapers in the country. It’s also been featured in German media as international publications use The Model to see what could happen at Eurovision this May.

Finally, The Model has also become a regular feature on the streams of popular Eurovision YouTuber ESC Gabe, who’s been using it for him and his fanbase to keep track of which songs are expected to go well and which may struggle at Eurovision next month.

Under the Hood of The Model

There’s also been a small addition to the dataset for The Model. Over at ESC Insight, Dane Jørgensen (or @dolphin_dane on social media) has been working on his own model for Eurovision 2025. He’s simulated his model 100,000 times to come up with who he thinks the data points to for the Eurovision victory.

To establish the data for his model, he surveyed hundreds of Eurovision fans to see how they thought each entry would do in the jury and public vote at the contest. The Model is now using this data, along with internal musical statistics and historical voting records, to try and accurately assess the performance of each song in both votes – the changes are subtle but meaningful.

Additionally, from now until we get to Eurovision 2025, our graphics will feature a tracker of how each song is doing from update to update. This makes it easy to see how countries are trending upwards or downwards, and whether the recent pre-parties in Amsterdam and London have had an impact on their chances.

Now, let’s find out what The Model says.

Semi-Final One

Semi-Final One has remained largely similar to The Model’s last update two weeks ago. However, there are a few notable movers and shakers up the board and, based on this update, it seems that the race for qualification is getting more intense.

Starting at the top, KAJ and Sweden are still projected to win this semi-final fairly comfortably, albeit two points down from two weeks ago. In second place, the Netherlands has climbed above Ukraine, gaining the most points of any country in the semi. Claude’s odds have risen slightly over the fortnight, explaining “C’est La Vie” moving upward.

Claude’s climb pushes Ziferblat down to third place, while Belgium and Red Sebastian stay in fourth. Then, the songs in fifth and sixth have swapped places. Tommy Cash and “Espresso Macchiato” appear to not have had as strong of a reception at the pre-parties as many might have expected, and The Model is showing them down by 7 points.

That means Norway has climbed into the top five, with Kyle Alessandro seemingly gaining some positive momentum in the past two weeks. Kyle has been steadily rising in The Model’s rankings, and Norway now seem like a nailed on qualifier for Saturday’s Grand Final.

Further down, there’s some more reshuffling. Cyprus has climbed by two places to eighth to sit behind Albania, who have held their position in seventh. Behind them, Poland stays in ninth but gains some points compared to last time, while San Marino has fallen to 10th place. Gabry Ponte and “Tutta L’Italia” have seen their odds lengthen, explaining their drop to 56 points.

What that does mean is that the gap between 10th and 11th is narrowing. Last time, Iceland was forecast to be 14 points away from qualifying for the Grand Final, but The Model’s latest update sees them only 8 points behind. High-energy performances in Amsterdam and London, coupled with surreal interviews, have helped Væb trend upwards.

Further down, the bottom four countries in this semi-final all appear to be struggling. Azerbaijan is in 12th, falling by 5 points since the last update, while Croatia, Portugal, and Slovenia are still bringing up the rear of the pack.

While there are still several weeks to go until Eurovision, and staging can change everything, it looks an uphill battle for any of these four nations to progress.

Semi-Final Two

The Model’s projection of Semi-Final Two, though, has seen some dramatic shifts. Since two weeks ago, the top four have been relatively unchanged, but there are two countries that have moved sharply in the odds in the past fortnight, stealing expected points from many of the songs around them.

Yuval Raphael and Israel are still projected in first place in this semi-final, three points down on 169. Erika Vikman follows in second place with “Ich Komme”, and Austria’s JJ is in third with “Wasted Love”, with both also dropping a couple of points here and there. This drop for the favourites suggests The Model is still not firming up its predictions, with the points spread becoming more diverse this time around.

The main driver for this is the biggest climber in this update. Adonxs has seen a huge surge in support since two weeks ago, entering the top 10 in the betting odds off the back of strong pre-party performances. Czechia has gone from 74 to 103 points in The Model’s latest update, taking them up to fifth place behind another climber – Malta’s Miriana Conte.

Behind them, there’s another country that’s gained a big slice of points from The Model – and perhaps not the one you’d expect. Although many think Ireland will be a song on the borderline for qualifying, it has strengthened its position in the betting odds to climb from 53 to 71 points and go from 10th to seventh place in this projection. I would caveat this by saying that the odds often favour the UK and Ireland because many bookmakers are from there.

Ireland’s rise up the leaderboard has pushed Lithuania, Luxembourg, and Greece back by a place each. However, the top 10 songs from this semi-final and the top 10 from the first semi-final are unchanged from last time. The Model’s projection of the Grand Final, then, will make it easier to track which countries are moving upwards or downwards.

Lithuania have taken the biggest hit among those three songs listed above. “Tavo Akys” is now projected to score 63 points, seven less than in The Model’s last update. With rock songs finishing last in the final in the past two years, Lithuania will hope that this is a song that connects more strongly with the public.

Outside of the top 10, Latvia is the closest country to qualification with 41 points, nine behind Greece. Armenia has climbed to 12th, one of the few countries to gain points in this projection of Semi-Final Two despite Czechia and Ireland’s huge rises. Parg’s performances in the pre-parties appear to have improved his chances, although he still has some way to go in The Model’s eyes.

Denmark, however, is continuing to fall away. Surprisingly given her strong live vocals and social media presence, Sissal has lost a quarter of her points in this update, with Denmark dropping from 40 to 30. “Hallucination” has seen a dip in the odds, particularly in the exchange market, which can explain the majority of Denmark’s decline.

The bottom three remain in the same order, and all three are from Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. Serbia and Montenegro are struggling for points, with two Balkan ballads appearing to divide the voters who would back that genre of music. And, once again in last place, Georgia is seen by The Model to be the most unlikely qualifier this year.

Grand Final

If the Grand Final of Eurovision 2025 was held today, then The Model predicts that KAJ would now be the most likely winner, scoring 447 points overall.

KAJ is predicted to storm the televote, earning 50 points more than their nearest challengers Israel in this projection. And, while France is still ahead with the juries, it’s lost substantial ground in that race – more on that later.

KAJ’s victory in this simulation is built not only on a strong televote, but continued strength in the jury vote. While “Bara Bada Bastu” isn’t close to leading with the juries, it’s 183 point haul puts it in fourth place, behind only the expected jury powerhouses of France, Austria, and the Netherlands.

Those countries follow in that order behind them, with neither one of those nations beating KAJ’s 183 in the public vote. Austria has 163, France has 162 (which is up on two weeks ago) and the Netherlands are on 103 – these points totals aren’t enough to get any of these songs over the winning post.

You may have noticed that I haven’t discussed the inclusion of the new data around the jury/televote splits yet. That’s because, while it’s had a small effect in the semi-finals, the difference becomes clearer in the final.

The Juries

Country	Jury Points	Movement
France	273	-44
Austria	232	-12
Netherlands	231	+7
Sweden	183	+8
Czechia	138	+26
Switzerland	102	+3
Albania	95	+5
Greece	87	-6
Belgium	85	+33
Italy	85	+6
Finland	83	+1
Norway	69	+13
Israel	56	+6
United Kingdom	48	+32
Malta	45	-13
Spain	45	+6
Lithuania	43	-2
Poland	42	-12
Cyprus	40	+4
Ukraine	36	-2
Germany	35	+4
Ireland	25	-16
San Marino	21	-4
Estonia	20	-14
Australia	15	-9
Luxembourg	12	-5

While France is leading the jury vote in this simulation, a loss of 44 points is significant. While Louane has fallen in the odds slightly since the last projection, another significant factor is some songs gaining significantly with the juries with the new data.

While Czechia’s Adonxs was already projected to do very well with the juries, Belgium and the United Kingdom have both gained over 30 points with the juries. This seems to reflect the quality of both Red Sebastian and Remember Monday’s vocals, which have been attracting attention and praise at the Amsterdam and London pre-parties.

Outside of Czechia – already discussed – the United Kingdom is the biggest climber in this update. Remember Monday have climbed 35 points, and four positions, to go from 25th to 22nd place. It’s a projection that should give plenty of hope for fans in the UK, as find themselves just one place short of the left-hand side of the board in the jury vote.

Belgium, meanwhile, is one of the big reasons why France has suddenly dropped in the jury vote. As Belgium is a Francophone country, rising expectations on it from The Model have an outsized effect on France, their neighbours, as both countries have similar voting allies. Add to that the strong performance of “Voyage” from Switzerland here, and France is facing stern competition from its friends.

On the flip side, some songs near the bottom have definitely suffered from the realignment in the data. Ireland and Estonia have each taken big hits to their jury scores, with both countries now in the bottom five along with other televote-friendly tracks like San Marino and Australia. Luxembourg, like in the public vote, brings up the rear in the jury vote.

The Public

Country	Televote Points	Movement
Sweden	264	-2
Israel	214	-18
Finland	169	-4
Austria	163	-4
France	162	+8
Ukraine	124	-26
Estonia	114	+11
Netherlands	103	+18
Italy	95	-5
Albania	85	-4
Poland	75	0
Malta	73	+3
Norway	63	-1
Lithuania	62	-3
Germany	61	+1
Greece	59	+1
Belgium	57	-16
San Marino	53	0
Spain	47	+1
Czechia	43	+32
Australia	32	-1
Cyprus	30	+1
United Kingdom	25	+3
Ireland	17	+7
Switzerland	11	-1
Luxembourg	3	-1

In the public voting, there are fewer changes. However, a notable trend is that the top contenders in the public vote are all down on points slightly. With pre-party performances proving hard to draw conclusions from, The Model seems to have more questions than answers, with less confident points projections for the heavy hitters.

The climbers in the public vote are largely benefitting from the realignment of data. While Ireland and Estonia took dents in their jury score, they’ve gained the majority of it back with the public vote in this projection. Malta has also climbed, but only by three points – a marked contrast to the huge reception her pre-party performances have received from Eurofans.

Perhaps it’s more notable, then, to look at which countries have fallen in the public vote. The biggest drop has come from Ukraine, who have seen their position in the betting odds drift in the past couple of weeks. Ziferblat’s “Bird of Prey” doesn’t seem to be connecting in the same way as songs like “Teresa & Maria” and even “Heart of Steel” have in the past couple of years, and the 26 lost points in this update reflect that.

Across the board, though, plenty of songs have stayed very close to their projections from two weeks ago. San Marino and Poland, for example, have had no change to their score at all, despite Gabry Ponte and Justyna Steczkowska both getting crowds moving in Amsterdam and London. A better indication for bookmakers will undoubtedly be the first rehearsals and staging reveals in Basel.

Overall Table

Country	Overall Points	Movement
Sweden	447	+6
France	435	-36
Austria	395	-16
Netherlands	334	+25
Israel	270	-12
Finland	252	-3
Czechia	181	+58
Albania	180	+1
Italy	180	+1
Ukraine	160	-28
Greece	146	-5
Belgium	142	+17
Estonia	134	-3
Norway	132	+12
Malta	118	-10
Poland	117	-12
Switzerland	113	+2
Lithuania	105	-5
Germany	96	+5
Spain	92	+7
San Marino	74	-4
United Kingdom	73	+35
Cyprus	70	+5
Australia	47	-10
Ireland	42	-9
Luxembourg	15	-6

With that, all that’s left to do is look at the final overall table The Model is forecasting in this update. Sweden leads the way by 12 points from France, with Austria, the Netherlands and Israel unmoved in the top 5 positions. Further down, Adonxs is the biggest climber as he takes Czechia from 15th all the way to 7th, while Ukraine drops from 7th to 10th. Finland stays 6th, while Albania and Italy take the other spots in the top 10.

Towards the bottom, Remember Monday have made it far further up the board than last time out, with Cyprus, Australia and Ireland all dropping a place as a result. And, in the congested midfield, just 54 points separate 11th from 20th in what looks set to be a frantic race to the left-hand side of the leaderboard.

How Accurate is this Projection?

It’s important not to view this as an absolute prediction of Eurovision 2025. Instead, it’s better to view it as a solid indication of the direction the contest could be heading in.

Through the next few weeks, the data around Eurovision 2025 will continue to change. Betting odds will firm up, community rankings will begin to cement themselves, and this will mean that The Model reflects this.

While KAJ is currently projected to score 447 points, The Model should adjust to raise the total of the favourites and reduce the total for other entries as the contest comes closer. Throughout the lead-up to Eurovision 2025, though, The Model will make further projections that hopefully bring us closer to what will happen in Basel.

How Can I Follow ‘The Model’?

From today until the contest, The Model will make a series of projections of what the Eurovision results could be if the contest was held that day.

We’ll make new projections using the system at key moments in the lead-up to the contest. At every point, the projections will change as the data and opinion around the contest shifts, meaning every projection is a new Eurovision to explore.

The full results of each projection will be published on the Eurovoix website. So, whether you just want to know who might win or want to dive deep into every bit of data, you can spend as much time as you want with The Model.

If you love Eurovision, love making predictions or just love numbers, The Model will visualise Eurovision in a completely new way. Make sure to check back on Eurovoix’s website and social media so you don’t miss The Model’s next projection.

Image Source: Daniel Stridh / Eurovoix