‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data projection of the Eurovision Song Contest, returns to make its first projection of Eurovision 2025 today.
Launched in 2024, ‘The Model’ takes data from the world of Eurovision and, using historical voting patterns, online polls and more, is able to create a simulation of the full contest to identify how Eurovision 2025 is likely to play out.
The Model’s first projection will be revealed at 19:00 CET on the Eurovoix website and across social media. And, in the run-up to Eurovision 2025, we will use ‘The Model’ to make further projections, seeing how the numbers change as the contest comes closer, before making a last official prediction on the day of the Eurovision final in Basel.
You can find out which song The Model thinks will win Eurovision 2025 and more now by listening to today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast:
By turning all the online noise and opinion around this year’s contest into data, ‘The Model’ is a new way to analyse Eurovision. It uses this data to create unique profiles both for the songs competing and the juries and public voters of each country, meaning it can project Eurovision point-by-point.
As a result, rather than only predict a winner or the qualifiers from semi-finals, The Model gives the exact result it calculates is most likely to happen and presents it. So, instead of speculation, this system makes everything specific – and it’s up to you to decide whether it will be accurate or wide of the mark.
But, how does ‘The Model’ work? How does it predict the contest? And is it something to take seriously?
How Does ‘The Model’ Work?
The Model takes existing data around the Eurovision Song Contest and transforms it into a simulation of the voting. What this means is that it can predict every point of both jury and public voting, creating a realistic simulation of Eurovision.
Drawing on statistics such as the current odds for the contest, the My Eurovision Scoreboard ranking app and even internal musical statistics like danceability, energy and happiness, The Model tries to identify the results of the contest before they happen.
Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi finals and final of the contest. This prediction is not a forecast, as such, but a ‘nowcast’ – a calculation of what would happen if Eurovision 2025 was held right now.
As a result, The Model’s projections will change over time as the data it consumes changes. Different songs will shift up and down the order depending on their popularity, and The Model will also account for future announcements like running order, song revamps and even tactical voting.
What is New About ‘The Model’ in 2025?
Last year, ‘The Model’ was able to successfully predict that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024, despite the country being third place in the betting odds on the day of the final. This showed that the system was able to predict the contest better than the odds themselves.
However, the system has been tweaked and updated this year to improve its accuracy even further. There have been changes to the way The Model calculates the internal musical data of songs to predict their favourability with the jury and televote, and the historical voting methodology has been refined to produce sharper results.
Because of this, we hope ‘The Model’ will produce projections that get closer than ever to the real Eurovision result in May. However, it is important to note that ‘The Model’ doesn’t predict the future, as such – it predicts what would happen if the contest was held right now, based on the current information we have, rather than information we do not know.
How Can I Follow ‘The Model’?
From today until the contest, The Model will make a series of projections of what the Eurovision results could be if the contest was held that day.
We’ll make new projections using the system at key moments in the lead-up to the contest – from the running order announcement for the semi-finals, to the conclusion of the Eurovision pre-parties. At every point, the projections will change as the data and opinion around the contest shifts, meaning every projection is a new Eurovision to explore.
The full results of each projection will be published on the Eurovoix website. So, whether you just want to know who might win or want to dive deep into every bit of data, you can spend as much time as you want with The Model.
If you love Eurovision, love making predictions or just love numbers, The Model will visualise Eurovision in a completely new way. Come back at 19:00 CET to see its first projection, and keep up with The Model across our social media accounts.
