With just over 3 hours until the final of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest, it’s time to give our predictions. Once again William will be giving his thoughts as well as to who we think will win, who will be in the top.5, who will come in the bottom 5 and how the Big 5 will do. So let’s begin
Who do we think will win?
Anthony:
As much as I don’t want to say it, I do think it’s gonna be Denmark. They’ve been the favourite all the way into the run up of this contest, it goes down well with the public as shown by it’s charting straight after the first semi final. Furthermore it’s a credibly song, it’s something that anyone can get the hook of and that wont become a love or hate song. I do feel that Denmark wont be the runaway that everyone expects tonight.
William:
Despite being before all the other popular acts tonight, Denmark still holds a song that is different from recent winners, as well as something that is televote and jury friendly. While it wouldn’t be a runaway winner, the highest scoring winner, highest margin or even most popular winner, the performance is there. Whether or not the song is there for it to win is another question.
So if Denmark wins, who will come in the top.5?
Anthony:
So for me this is who I think will be in the top.5 along with Denmark, I’m not going to be put them in a specific order but I’m going to say:
- Norway
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Azerbaijan
- The Netherlands
I think the one to watch tonight will be Azerbaijan, they are strong normally but this year they are looking like they could do very well again. Farid may have massive nerves at the start of each performance, but it’s only human. I would not be surprised it we see them in 2nd or 3rd place by the end of the night.
Ukraine is another song with another strong singer, Zlata knows how to belt that song out, but I do fear the Giant will knock her down a bit. This is where I feel Russia will gain, they will get the votes that Ukraine loses plus the normal cultural vote from the ex-USSR.
Norway could be the biggest threat to Denmark tonight, Denmark does come across as very produced, whilst Norway comes across as real and in the moment. They could be a nation that will get a hit across Europe. The Netherlands will either do very well or very badly, personally I’m going for very well, it’s an amazing song and I want to see this do well.
William:
Georgia – So Swedish friendly that it has gotten the ultimate slot. The song and staging is so textbook that it is sure to go down well with the juries and televote. Whether or not people realize that they’ve heard this song a million times in the past few Eurovisions is unknown. Has many more friends and is in “English” so it will do better than Spain of last year. Might be too similar to Azerbaijan 2011 to win, I feel like Eurovision winners bring something different when they win, and Waterfall might not work this year.
Norway – Incredibly dark and powerful, definitely something new for Eurovision. I doubt this song and staging have what it takes to win and I feel its televote appeal to be much lower when compared to Georgia or Denmark. Nonetheless, this is very likely to get top 10. I can’t see us going back to Norway anytime soon, Petra made a good point about how we won’t want to go back anytime soon anyways.
Germany – Probably the only credible uptempo song this year that is sure to get support from the juries. Cascada have been doing this for a long time, and the song and staging is simply infectious. Being the best written and best staged uptempo entry is sure to give this a decent placing. I doubt that the juries kill this, it’s a much needed energetic pulse into the show.
Ukraine – This has to be very low on the top 5 table for me. I had such high hopes in the staging, and while I haven’t been too devastated, it was over hyped by their delegation. Not like that matters much though, Igor doesn’t detract too much from the song and Zlata + the song is absolutely beautiful. While I don’t see this winning anymore, I do see this still performing pretty good. Even with all the ex-USSR votes going to be terribly depleted.
So then who will come last?
Anthony:
My bottom 5 has to consist of Spain, Belarus, Hungary, Lithuania and Armenia. Hungary is the one I see scraping the bottom of the board, I never saw this is a qualifier and it’s going to get lost between Sweden and Denmark. This song does nothing for me, and I’d be shocked to see this score over around 30 points.
Lithuania also joins Hungary in the “how did that qualify?” category, it’s doomed performing second straight after France. I’d expect to see some points from Georgia, Latvia, Belarus and Estonia for this but nothing else. This will struggle to score 20 or so points.
Spain as much as the song is nice, it doesn’t do anything. It waits until the last 15 seconds for any life to happen within this song and then it’s too late. Armenia will probably scrape at the top of the 20s, sadly I fear this will be the country that annoys me by getting a lot of points. Belarus is just too over produced and it’s not a good song at all.
William:
Spain – While I completely dismissed Iceland and Estonia in the semifinals, it’s pretty obvious that their decent staging got them through. Spain, though, is equally as boring but with even worse staging. No friends, the song and staging isn’t there, if this doesn’t get bottom 5 then Spain is probably going to replace Turkey for the next decade or so.
Belarus – As much as I love this song, the staging even turns me off. The juries won’t like it, Western televoters won’t like it. It has hope for some random Eastern votes but that won’t work as these votes are going to be too diluted this year. I’d be surprised, but happy, if this didn’t make bottom 5, but I doubt that. Happy to see them in the final at the very least.
Hungary – Some people have been calling him the top 10 dark horse for this year, but even if he is, I won’t admit it. I fail to see that he’d have enough appeal to get him around Denmark and Sweden. The stage act is just as boring as Spain, but the song and his style could have some appeal. I doubt it’s enough.
Armenia – I feel like this one might also get lost in the ex-USSR votes. While Armenia have a great record, they have generally sent songs that have been considerably more interesting than this. Very nice ethnic vibes that I don’t feel from this. I won’t be surprised if this does better, but then again I’m not counting on it. I expected a great classic ethnopop song for their wonderful return, not this.
United Kingdom – Anthony will kill me for this, but I’m not as blindly nationalistic as he is despite being from the Commonwealth. The song is exactly nothing, between Romania and Sweden it’s even more to forget. With that said, it’s better here than between Denmark and Norway, but anything before the host country that isn’t outrageously special is going to be forgotten pretty quickly, no matter how unfortunate the home entry is. It’s so sad, the BBC could easily do really good in Eurovision, but they chose not too. Hopefully a few more decades of failure will teach them. They get San Marino-like results and they probably have the biggest voting power and biggest music industry. Very disappointing every year.
Finally to rank the Big 5
Anthony: So here is how I think the Big 5 will finish the night:
- Germany – Top 10
- United Kingdom – Top. 15
- France – Top. 15
- Italy – Top. 20
- Spain – Bottom 10
France is going to struggle opening, the UK should do okay I’m expecting around 15th. Germany deserves a top.10, I don’t think Italy will go down well with the public, so will finish in the teens because of the new voting calculation. And Spain are guaranteed the bottom 5.
William:
- Germany: top 5
- Italy: top 15
- France: top 20
- United Kingdom: bottom 5
- Spain: even worse bottom 5
Sad year for the big 5, quite opposite to last year. Italy I find is simply too overrated, much like the UK, to do that well. Should do pretty good in the jury vote but in the new system that will kill them. France is an awful opener, they really should complain to the EBU and do something like the UK did last year.
