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In a poll on the Eurovision fan forum at a poll has been launched to see who the people think will withdraw from the 2011 contest and so far 154 people have voted, and so far four countries have emerged as those most likely to wthdraw these are:
  • Armenia 57.79% 
  • Poland 33.12%
  • San Marino 20.78%
  • Slovakia 42.21%

Now lets start with Armenia and why people beleive they will withdraw:

Armenia and Azerbaijan have always had a tense relationship and are still in daily skirmishes with each other over Nagorno-Karabakh an area of land homed to over 100,000 Armenians that the Armenians claim as theirs and that the Azerbaijani’s say is part of their territory. This hatred within Azerbaijan of Armenians has led to fear that if Armenia were to enter the contest that they could be subject to violent attacks when in Baku and that this could result in harm to the Armenian delegation. The Azerbaijani government have said that they would provide protection but mistrust between the two and Azerbaijan being known for going back on promises is a big reason for possible withdrawal. The fact that Armenians are not allowed on Azerbaijani soil has been overruled as no nation in the contest is allowed to dictate who goes and who stays at home.

Now Onto Slovakia:

Slovakia seems like a very likely nation to pull. out of the contest, they were going to pull out of the 2010 contest but stayed as it was more expensive to pay a fine that to go to Dusseldorf. However this year the country came 13th in SF2 their best ever result in their history at Eurovision, which raises doubt over withdrawing from the contest, also with the possible Return of the Czech Republic they could be able to get a voting pact going boasting their chance of finally reaching the final. Withdrawal is still possible as STV still has funding issues and the cost of going to Azerbaijan may be too much.

Onwards we go and next stop is Poland:

With coming last in this year’s contest in SF1 with just 18 points which many believe was due to a problem with the sound balance and the poor quality broadcast at the beginning of SF1 serious doubts are being raised. Poland has had a poor past 6 years in the contest consistently not qualifying and even when they did coming joint last in 24th with 14 points. Interest in the contest is dwindling and Poland look as if they are fed up of not making it to the final. It is too early to tell if they will withdraw but they may be the one to watch.

Finally off to the smallest country in the contest, San Marino:

San Marino has not formerly confirmed participation but doubts have been raised after the possible implementation of mandatory national finals in each country in ESC by the EBU. This has caused worries over SMRTV being able to field a national final and gain an audience big enough to get them to vote in a national final. Now personally I don’t see them withdrawing after their big brother Italy looks as if they may help out with the contest.

We will keep a close eye on the chances of more withdrawals.

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