Last night saw the second semi final of the Eurovision Song Contest take place in Vienna, Austria. At the conclusion we discovered which 10 entries from the semi final would be advancing to the Grand Final on Saturday. With that in mind, we can now compare the official results with what Eurojury was forecasting.
The Jury Vote
Though we don’t yet know exact points from last night’s show, we know that our Jury Vote correctly identified 8 of the 10 qualifiers. All of our jury’s top 7 managed to be among the qualifiers along with Romania in ninth place. The Jury Vote in Eurojury however did forecast a qualification for Switzerland in 8th and Luxembourg narrowly in 10th but sadly neither could make it past the line in the actual show.
Instead Switzerland and Luxembourg’s places went to Norway who fell just short in our forecast as well as Ukraine who were just one space below.
The Online Vote
Our Online Vote fared equally as well as our Jury as 8 entries within their qualification territory did manage to advance in the semi final. The entire top 8 in this forecast managed to advance however once more what was a miss here was Switzerland qualifying in 9th, as well as Latvia in 10th.
For the second time in the forecast, it was actually Norway and Ukraine that stopped the outcome being fully accurate, with Ukraine sitting 11th, just short of qualification in forecast and Norway this time in 13th place.
Combined Result
When combining the results of our Online Vote and Jury Vote, an interesting scenario occurs. Because Ukraine in the combined vote actually managed to qualify as a compromise, this actually makes the overall forecast more accurate than either individual list as Ukraine indeed secured a place in the final making the full Eurojury result about to find 9 of the 10 qualifiers.
The top 8 of this forecast all have a space in the grand final as well as the compromise Ukraine in 10th, however Switzerland who were expected to qualify here actually had their space taken by Norway in 12th place.
Rest of the World Jury
The actual semi final did not include a jury from the Rest of the World like we introduced in Eurojury, so we are displaying this data separately. Our 12 member jury from the Rest of the World also identified 8 of the 10 qualifiers. However they have some countries higher up their preference that this time didn’t make it through, of note is Azerbaijan which is the only comparison we have where the list would have liked to see them qualify which sadly didn’t happen.
This is also the only data analysed so far where a country finishing last on any ranking actually managed to advance to the final, which in this case is Ukraine.
Comparing with the Betting Odds
Comparing the combined Eurojury results with the betting odds from the morning of the semi final, we can see in fact the betting odds with more up to date information did manage to identify one more qualifier compared to Eurojury, in fact the betting odds secured full accuracy while Eurojury were one short. Both forecasts had agreed on 9 of the qualifiers, however Eurojury incorrectly identified Switzerland over Norway which was correctly predicted by betting odds. Both methods of forecast also correctly identified Azerbaijan, Armenia, Luxembourg and Latvia as sadly unable to qualify.
Bulgaria, Ukraine, Norway, Australia, Romania, Malta, Cyprus, Albania, Denmark and Czechia will now be performing in the Grand Final on Saturday alongside the 10 qualifiers from Tuesday’s semi final as well as the Big 4 and Austria, the host country.
