It’s three weeks until the live shows of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 and time to take a first look at the odds for qualification from the Semi-Finals.
Semi-Final One
Semi-Final One is viewed as the more predictable of the two Semi-Finals in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The top five favourites to qualify are all within 3 percentage points of one another, with every country ninth or above viewed as having a greater than 70% chance of qualification.
Currently sitting as the tenth favourite to qualify is Gabry Ponte from San Marino, who is backed by betters to be only the fourth San Marinese entry to reach a Grand Final. Azerbaijan is currently placed eleventh, and is 18 percentage points behind San Marino.
Of note is Iceland, which is one of the two countries currently in the bottom five that has seen its percentage likelihood of qualification grow since the odds launched at the start of this month. VÆB have gone from a 24% chance to a 37% chance of qualifying, and could be a surprise in Basel.
The percentage chance of qualification according to Eurovision World as of 18:00 CET is:
- Sweden – Kaj – “Bara bada bastu” – 92%
- Netherlands – Claude – “C’est la vie” – 92%
- Estonia – Tommy Cash – “Espresso macchiato” – 91%
- Ukraine – Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray” – 91%
- Albania – Shkodra Elektronika – “Zjerm” – 89%
- Norway – Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter” – 81%
- Poland – Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja” – 79%
- Cyprus – Theo Evan – “Ssh” – 78%
- Belgium – Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights” – 72%
- San Marino – Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia – 66%
- Azerbaijan – Mamagama – “Run With U” – 48%
- Iceland – VÆB – “Róa” – 37%
- Slovenia – Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?” – 36%
- Portugal – Napa – “Deslocado” – 27%
- Croatia – Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake” – 21%
Semi-Final Two
Semi-Final Two is the more open of the Semi-Finals, with a number of smaller packs of countries competing for places in the Grand Final. Finland, Israel and Austria are all viewed as comfortable qualifiers, while Malta leads the middle pack on 79%, with eighth-placed Australia on 75%.
Luxembourg is currently at the head of the pack of countries fighting for the final qualification spots for the Grand Final from Semi-Final Two. Serbia, which is the tenth favourite to qualify, has seen its chance of qualification grow by 10 percentage points since the start of April, gaining two places during that time.
Denmark is currently viewed by the betting public as failing to qualify for a fifth contest in a row. Sissal’s percentage chance of qualifying has fluctuated over the past couple of weeks, with Denmark hoping that an improved stage show in Basel will bring them into the final.
In the bottom pack, four countries have seen their chance of qualification decrease over the past two weeks. Parg has fallen 6 percentage points, Tautumeitas are down 7 percentage points, Nina Žižić has lost 15 percentage points and Mariam Shengelia is down 5 percentage points.
The percentage chance of qualification according to Eurovision World as of 18:00 CET is:
- Finland – Erika Vikman – “Ich komme – 92%
- Israel – Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise” – 91%
- Austria – JJ – “Wasted Love” – 91%
- Malta – Miriana Conte – “Serving” – 79%
- Czechia – Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” – 79%
- Lithuania – Katarsis – “Tavo akys” – 79%
- Greece – Klavdia – “Asteromata – 77%
- Australia – Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man” – 75%
- Luxembourg – Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son” – 60%
- Serbia – Princ – “Mila” – 57%
- Ireland – Emmy – “Laika Party” – 53%
- Denmark – Sissal – “Hallucination” – 48%
- Armenia – Parg – “Survivor” – 4`1%
- Latvia – Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi” – 40%
- Montenegro – Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli” – 21%
- Georgia – Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom” – 19%
Image Source: Daniel Stridh | Source: Eurovision World
