Tonight 50% of the result of Semi-Final One will be determined, so who are the bookmakers backing to qualify ahead of the jury show?
There are three packs among the ten nations that are currently predicted by the bookmakers to qualify for the Grand Final from Semi-Final One. Greece, Cyprus and Australia are at the front of the pack, all with a 90% chance of qualifying.
The mid-field is then followed up with Iceland, Hungary, Serbia and the Czech Republic. In the past few days the Czech Republic has slipped back in terms of % chance of qualifying, but is still 12% ahead of the third pack in the top ten.
Belgium, Slovenia and Estonia are in the borderline part of the qualifiers list. Belgium has seen its qualification hopes increase by 7% points since the end of last week, while Slovenia has continued a slow fall back down the odds.
From 11th to 17th, there are a small number of nations that are seen with a chance of qualifying. Poland is the closest of the chasing pack just 7% behind Estonia. Georgia who currently sit in 13th are the only nation to have improved their qualification chances in the bottom seven.
One to watch is still San Marino who will be closing the show. Since the introduction of the Semi-Finals only six out twenty-six nations to have performed last in a Semi-Final have failed to qualify. This percentage falls even lower when looking at the years in which producers have created the running order.
Note that the % change and place changes are based on changes since May 9. The current rankings according to Eurovision World are:
- Greece – 93% (+1 place)
- Cyprus – 92% (-1 place, -1%)
- Australia – 90% (+1 place, +4%)
- Iceland – 85% (-1 place, -1%)
- Hungary – 83% (+1 place, +1%)
- Serbia – 82% (+1 place, +2%)
- Czech Republic – 80 (-4%, -2 places)
- Belgium – 68% (+2 places, +7%)
- Slovenia – 68% (-1 place, -3%)
- Estonia – 60% (-3%)
- Poland – 53% (-1%)
- Portugal – 37% (-6%)
- Georgia – 30% (+2 places, +7%)
- Belarus – 29% (-1 place, -2%)
- San Marino – 28% (-1 place, -1%)
- Finland – 14%
- Montenegro – 8%
Source: Eurovision World