With three weeks to go, the Netherlands remains the favourite to win, but which nations are predicted to qualify for the Grand Final?
Duncan Laurence from the Netherlands remains this years bookmakers favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest. The singer has been the favourite to win for over six weeks, but who are in the chasing pack?
Who Will Win?
27% likelihood of a Dutch victory in Tel Aviv, is a likelihood that no other country is coming close to matching with the bookmakers, with only Russia above a 10% chance of winning in Israel. So if the Netherlands are predicted to win, which nations are languishing at the bottom?
- Netherlands – 27%
- Russia – 12%
- Switzerland – 8%
- Italy – 4%
- Sweden – 7%
- Iceland – 6%
- Cyprus – 4%
- Malta – 3%
- Greece – 3%
- Norway – 2%
- France – 2% – Highest position with the bookmakers since the start of March
- Portugal – 2%
- Slovenia – 1%
- Azerbaijan – 1%
- Armenia – 1%
- Australia – 1%
- North Macedonia – 1% – Highest position with the bookmakers to date
- Spain – 1% – Highest position with the bookmakers since the start of March
- Czech Republic – 1%
- Denmark – 1%
- Belgium – 1% – Lowest position in the odds to date, having been top ten at the start of March
- United Kingdom – 1%
- Albania – 1% – Highest position with the bookmakers to date
- Estonia – 1%
- Israeli – 1%
- Germany – 1%
- Finland – <1%
- Ireland – <1%
- Hungary – <1%
- Poland – <1%
- Serbia – <1% – Highest position with the bookmakers since the end of February
- Romania – <1%
- Lithuania – <1%
- Austria – <1% – Lowest position with the bookmakers to date
- Croatia – <1%
- Belarus – <1%
- San Marino – <1%
- Moldova – <1%
- Latvia – <1%
- Montenegro – <1%
- Georgia – <1% – In the past week feel to last in the odds
While the top ten with the bookmakers has remained stable, the mid-field is ever-changing. North Macedonia, Spain and Albania have seen their odds of victory improve, even if they remain longshots at winning come May 18. In contrast, Belgium has slipped from being among the favourite to win, to a midtable result come the Saturday night.
Semi-Final One
Greece remains the favourite alongside Cyprus to qualify for the Grand Final from Semi-Final One. While Portugal who currently sit 12th with the bookmakers to win, are sitting 11th with the bookmakers to qualify for the final itself.
- Greece – 90%
- Cyprus – 90%
- Iceland – 85%
- Hungary – 75%
- Slovenia – 75%
- Serbia – 71%
- Czech Republic – 71%
- Australia – 70%
- Estonia – 67%
- Belgium – 66%
- Portugal – 64%
- Poland – 57%
- San Marino – 39%
- Belarus – 32%
- Finland – 20%
- Montenegro – 14%
- Georgia – 14%
Hungary and Serbia are among the favourites to qualify for the Grand Final, while their chances of victory come Saturday night are slim. The Czech Republic is also being viewed as a safer qualifier having moved from 10th to 7th over the past month.
Belgium continues to teeter on the edge of non-qualification, having moved between 11th and 9th place for the past month. Australia has also slipped back two places over the past week, having peaked at sixth favourite to qualify.
Semi-Final Two
Semi-Final Two is being viewed as the tougher of the two semi-finals to qualify from, with a number of songs viewed as having a chance of making the Saturday night. The Netherlands, Russia and Sweden are viewed as the favourites to qualify.
- Netherlands – 90%
- Russia – 90%
- Sweden – 90%
- Switzerland – 86%
- Azerbaijan – 82%
- Malta – 78%
- Armenia – 73%
- Norway – 69%
- North Macedonia – 58%
- Denmark – 56%
- Albania – 51%
- Romania – 44%
- Lithuania – 42%
- Moldova – 21%
- Austria – 20%
- Latvia – 18%
- Croatia – 17%
- Ireland – 16%
North Macedonia has made its way into the top ten in the past month, having previously sat as 11th favourite to make it through to the Saturday night. This has come at the expense of Albania who has slipped from 9th to 11th with the bookmakers.
Of note is that Moldova has improved with the bookmakers from the start of April. The nation which is being represented by Anna Odobescu was 17th at the start of April and has moved up to 14th place. Currently Ireland sits as the nation viewed as least likely to qualify come May 16.