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United Kingdom: Is It All In The Draw?

Bonnie It's Not Looking Good
Bonnie It’s Not Looking Good

I think as a nation when we found out that Bonnie was performing in the second half there was a collective sigh of relief, but should be feel better about our hopes or not? This year we are performing in 15th place, but more interestingly we are performing just before the host country of Sweden. So I decided to have a look back at how this affected the results, and this is what I found.

Let’s start with just performing 15th, I looked at the results going back from 2012 to 2003. Interestingly 2003 and 2012 were the last years that 26 countries performed in the final, so we’ll be paying special attention to them. So here’s the results that the countries starting in 15th managed:

  • 2012 – 23rd – 21 points
  • 2011- 12th – 97 points
  • 2010 – 16th – 62 points
  • 2009 – 6th – 129 points
  • 2008 – 18th – 47 points
  • 2007 – 3rd – 207 points
  • 2006 – 19th (UK) – 25 points
  • 2005 – 17th – 32 points
  • 2004 – 14th – 47 points
  • 2003 – 26th (UK) – 0 points

As we see on only two occasions has a country managed a top.10 result from 1th that would be Estonia in 2009 and Russia in 2007. More worryingly in the two years that the contest has had 26th songs in before (2012 & 2003), the results have put them back in the 20s. Oh dear indeed, the average result here is just 15th place, with an average points score of just 67 points.

Okay so let’s see if performing before the host country has that much of an impact, again we are looking at the years from 2003-2012:

  • 2012 – 26th – 7 points
  • 2011 – 12th – 97 points
  • 2010 – 15th – 68 points
  • 2009 – 10th – 92 points
  • 2008 – 16th – 55 points
  • 2007 – 24th – 5 points
  • 2006 – 19th – 25 points (UK)
  • 2005 – 17th – 52 points
  • 2004 – 5th – 170 points
  • 2003 – 7th – 90 points

Now pay particular attention to 2005 and 2006, both years that country was performing in 15th and before the host nation, we get an average result of 18th place with points of 38.5. Okay let’s try and avoid looking at that statistic. On the whole performing before the host nation gives you 15th place and a score of 66 points.

So let’s summarise that together:

  • Performing 15th – you get 15th place and 67 points
  • Performing before the host nation – you get 15 place and 66 points

So if we get 15th place tonight and either 66 or 67 points, then something odd is definitely going on. We all know going into tonight that Bonnie Tyler is not going to win the contest, she’ll do well, maybe she’ll get that 12th place she’s been talking about all week. Regardless we should be proud of her and that is what matters.

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